Article | by Sophia Charters
Marketing budgets during Coronavirus
and what we can learn from the 2008 recession
This resource is part of Adapt to COVID-19
Thankfully, we’ve endured multiple periods of economic downturn in the last century and this is the perfect time to revisit the lessons that have been learned. In this article, I’ll explain why marketing is not optional, how you can understand changes to your customers' behaviours, and where to spend, save and adapt to manage your budgets effectively.
As businesses suffer slowing sales and project continued revenue losses, a number of brands will be inclined to focus on the short term and consider slashing their marketing spend to compensate. The latest survey conducted by Marketing Week reveals that around 90% of marketing budgets have been delayed or are under review.
This trend is concerning for three key reasons:
In their recent global consumer study, Kantar found that the majority of consumers think that brands should continue to advertise during this period of crisis. While it’s important not to exploit the situation, your audience does expect to hear from you. 75% of consumers believe that brands should keep them informed of what they are doing and half of those surveyed think that brands should continue to use the same tone ‘as they have always done’.
Building brand awareness and equity takes time. The marketing communications you are sharing now can take months and years to generate their full impact among your target audience. The implication of this is two-fold. Firstly, by cutting spend now, you’ll suffer the consequences later down the line.
Secondly, the tactic of ramping up marketing activity at the end of the recession will take time to create results. It won’t provide immediate gains in a newly revived and noisy advertising landscape.
Brands that maintain their advertising budgets will have the advantage against their competitors who have either reduced or ceased advertising entirely. Brands that are able to actually increase their marketing budgets stand to gain huge ground in the share of voice, and therefore share of the market, as others clear the stage for those who increase their volume of communications. There are countless examples of famous brands who have made incredible strategic gains in previous recessionary periods including Kelloggs, Procter & Gamble, Target and Lego.
Unsurprisingly, making decisions for the short term inevitably has profound impacts on longer-term success. Any savings that can be made now by reducing campaign activity will pale in comparison to the impact that maintaining, or even building brand equity would generate for your pipeline.
Marketing is not optional. Data shows that following 2008’s financial crisis, the businesses that maintained comparably strong brands recovered nine times faster in terms of their stock market value.
Even if a brand is able to weather the storm of COVID-19 and the resulting recession by surviving with minimal marketing efforts, they will find themselves be in a weakened position for longer. These businesses will likely remain in survival mode, unable to thrive, for a longer period of time that those who maintained their level of marketing activity.
Now that we know that customers expect to be hearing from brands, we have to consider what it is that they want and need, to hear. In order to maximise the value of your marketing budget, it is critical that you understand your audience, their circumstances, anxieties and aspirations. This has always been true but as we move into a recession, your audience will also be moving into a new psychological space, where they expect new or different things.
Following this time of crisis, we can expect a general trend for consumers to be more concerned with family, safety and security. But there will also be differences in how certain people perceive the effects of a recession on their finances and, therefore, how they adjust their spending behaviour accordingly.
In 2009, Harvard Business School professor John Quelch argued that traditional demographic segmentation models do not serve marketers in a time of recession. Instead, he proposed segmenting of audience groups by their psychological perspective.
The ‘slam-on-the-brakes’ segment
The ‘pained-but-patient’ segment
The ‘comfortably well-off’ segment
The ‘live-for-today’ segment
One thing that was common for each of the four psychological segments identified above was their prioritisation of purchase types:
And changes to each segment’s purchasing behaviour could subsequently be mapped by these categories:
Source: HBR, How to market in a downturn
Insight that takes into consideration the thoughts and feelings of your audience will help you understand their actions, and even predict how their behaviours are likely to change as the situation progresses. And when you understand how your audience perceives your products and services during a recession, you have the power to adapt. Businesses that invest in understanding their core customers’ changing needs throughout this economic transition will be able to selectively and judiciously adjust their strategy and product offering in line with new or changing demands.
One positive to come from a difficult economic climate is that financial pressure provides the necessary impetus to carefully and systematically review budgets. Now is the time to make well-evidenced recommendations for the best use of budget in terms of where to save, spend and adapt:
1. Save where you can
Save by eliminating any tactical activity that is underperforming.
2. Adapt to opportunities
...By determining which of your products and services are likely to decline, stabilise or grow. Then divert investment toward the strategic priorities you’ve identified. It’s important not to alienate your loyal customers who turn to you for your existing services. But it’s important not to ignore innovations in product offering, or shifts in positioning which will genuinely help your audience.
3. Spend on the right messaging in the right places
Starting with solid audience insight, you’ll be able to identify their desires and concerns and ultimately what they need to hear from you. You’ll also know where your customers are and of course, right now, that is likely to be at home and online (but online where? and how?).
Strategic investment is your best defence against an impending recession.
Spend to maintain, or if possible build your brand equity.
Spend to gain an advantage on competitors who slash their advertising budget.
Spend to understand your customers in this changing economy and to make sure the messaging you produce meets their needs.
When you invest in your marketing efforts you’re investing in the long term future of your business. There’s no better way to set the expectation that your future will be a successful one.